Labor & Logistics Indicators · October 2026

PMI 54.5, Warehouse Jobs −21,600: Retention Is the Peak Risk

Factories are expanding and costs are climbing, but warehouse jobs are falling and pay trails 3.4% inflation. Retention, not hiring, is the peak-season labor risk.

By · Published · Data as of Oct. 4, 2026

Labor & Logistics Indicators, October 2026, from Productiv: warehouse labor, freight and parcel costs

The Executive Soundbite

Manufacturing is expanding, with the ISM PMI at 54.5 in September. Meanwhile, warehousing and storage employment is down 21,600 from a year ago, and transportation and warehousing pay, up 3.1%, trails 3.4% inflation. Diesel at $6.382/gal and parcel ground fuel surcharges near 30% mean costs are moving faster than volume. Heading into peak, the labor risk is keeping trained people, not finding new ones.

“FedEx has already announced a 5.9% rate increase for January, and that comes on top of a ground fuel surcharge that's already 29.75%. Diesel is up about 70% from a year ago, and residential peak fees haven't even started. Freight spend is up 18.7% on just 2.1% more shipments, and diesel is the cost moving fastest.”

Paul Baker, CFO, Productiv

The Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index

August 2026 (final)

130.4

+3.7 pts m/m · +14.9 pts y/y

Labor
106.8
Freight
128.6
Capital & Inputs
143.7

How to read it: 100 = the 2015–2019 average; every 10 points is one normal-year swing; higher = more cost and labor pressure.

Line chart of the Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index from November 2010 to August 2026 with its Labor, Freight and Capital & Inputs pillars against a baseline of 100. The composite is 130.4 in August 2026, +3.7 points from the prior month and +14.9 from a year earlier; Labor 106.8, Freight 128.6, Capital & Inputs 143.7.
Cost and labor pressure is well above the pre-pandemic norm. Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index, monthly, Nov. 2010 – Aug. 2026 (100 = 2015–2019 average). Source: Productiv calculations from BLS (CES, JOLTS, PPI), EIA diesel and the Federal Reserve 10-year Treasury (DGS10), via FRED; final months only.
Chart data (table)
Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index and pillars, last 24 final months (100 = 2015–2019 average)
MonthIndexLaborFreightCapital & Inputs
Sept. 2024104.7105.986.2122.0
Oct. 2024107.7113.181.1129.5
Nov. 2024109.3120.376.3133.0
Dec. 2024114.4113.791.5135.6
Jan. 2025118.5114.599.3137.4
Feb. 2025116.7113.197.3135.9
March 2025109.1100.190.9133.1
April 2025110.398.897.6130.1
May 2025112.1105.194.6133.3
June 2025113.4119.988.2131.6
July 2025112.5106.992.6134.8
Aug. 2025115.5107.4103.2131.1
Sept. 2025119.0109.9110.5130.6
Oct. 2025122.4118.5114.0129.0
Nov. 2025126.9118.2123.8130.7
Dec. 2025119.3115.4106.7131.1
Jan. 2026115.7114.297.9131.8
Feb. 2026118.5118.0102.0131.9
March 2026130.6116.7128.2137.0
April 2026132.8110.5132.0143.4
May 2026136.2118.4132.6145.5
June 2026137.6125.0132.2144.3
July 2026126.8105.0123.1141.3
Aug. 2026130.4106.8128.6143.7

Full monthly history since Nov. 2010, with each component's raw value, transform and z-score, is in the CSV.

Download CSV Data

For shippers & manufacturing leaders: At 130.4, pressure is about three normal-year swings above the pre-pandemic average, led by Capital & Inputs (143.7) and Freight (128.6). Set 2027 freight and packaging budgets against that, and ask your 3PL how its peak plan absorbs it.

For 3PLs & facility operators: Labor is the calmest pillar at 106.8, so the squeeze this month is fuel, freight and input costs, not wages. That makes now the cheaper time to lock in retention, before peak hiring competition starts.

How the index is built: components, weights, baseline and revision policy

At a glance

  • Fuel: U.S. diesel averaged $6.382/gal for the week of Sept. 28, 2026, up $2.63 (about 70%) from a year earlier (EIA).
  • Warehouse jobs: Warehousing and storage employment was 1,831,800 in September 2026 (preliminary), down 21,600 from a year earlier (BLS).
  • Pay: Transportation and warehousing average hourly earnings were $32.78 in September 2026, up 3.1% year over year, behind August CPI inflation of 3.4% (BLS).
  • Input prices: Producer prices for final demand rose 5.4% year over year in August 2026 (BLS), and the ISM manufacturing prices index was 77.9 in September (ISM).
  • Parcel: Ground fuel surcharges were 30.25% at UPS and 29.75% at FedEx for the week of Sept. 28, 2026, before peak fees. FedEx's 2027 rate increase averages 5.9% (carrier notices).

1. Economy

  • Real GDP: +2.2% annualized in Q2 2026 (BEA third estimate, released Sept. 30). Q1 was revised to +2.5%.
Bar chart of quarterly real GDP growth from Q3 2024 to Q2 2026; Q2 2026 is 2.2% at an annual rate after 0.2% in Q4 2025 and 2.5% in Q1 2026.
Growth is back above 2% after a weak Q4. Real GDP, quarterly % change at annual rate, Q3 2024 – Q2 2026. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED (A191RL1Q225SBEA), released Sept. 30, 2026.
Chart data (table)
Real GDP, quarterly % change at annual rate
QuarterReal GDP growth
Q3 20243.2%
Q4 20242.4%
Q1 20250.1%
Q2 20254.0%
Q3 20253.9%
Q4 20250.2%
Q1 20262.5%
Q2 20262.2%

Q2 2026 is the BEA third estimate (released Sept. 30, 2026).

Download CSV Data
  • CPI, headline: +3.4% year over year in August 2026 (BLS, released Sept. 11).
  • CPI, core (excluding food and energy): +2.4% year over year. Energy was up 16.3% and gasoline up 27.4%. Transportation services were up 2.4%.
Line chart of CPI headline and core inflation, year over year, Sept. 2024 to Aug. 2026; headline is 3.4% and core 2.4% in August 2026. October 2025 is missing because data were not collected.
Energy is pushing headline inflation above core. CPI-U, % change from 12 months earlier, Sept. 2024 – Aug. 2026. Source: BLS via FRED (CPIAUCNS, CPILFENS), released Sept. 11, 2026.
Chart data (table)
CPI-U, % change from 12 months earlier
MonthHeadline CPICore CPI (ex. food & energy)
Sept. 20242.4%3.3%
Oct. 20242.6%3.3%
Nov. 20242.7%3.3%
Dec. 20242.9%3.2%
Jan. 20253.0%3.3%
Feb. 20252.8%3.1%
March 20252.4%2.8%
April 20252.3%2.8%
May 20252.4%2.8%
June 20252.7%2.9%
July 20252.7%3.1%
Aug. 20252.9%3.1%
Sept. 20253.0%3.0%
Oct. 2025n/an/a
Nov. 20252.7%2.6%
Dec. 20252.7%2.6%
Jan. 20262.4%2.5%
Feb. 20262.4%2.5%
March 20263.3%2.6%
April 20263.8%2.8%
May 20264.2%2.9%
June 20263.5%2.6%
July 20263.4%2.5%
Aug. 20263.4%2.4%

n/a: October 2025 CPI was not collected (federal shutdown).

Download CSV Data
Line chart of CPI transportation services inflation, year over year, Sept. 2024 to Aug. 2026, easing to 2.4% in August 2026.
Transportation services inflation is cooling. CPI transportation services, % change from 12 months earlier, Sept. 2024 – Aug. 2026. Source: BLS via FRED (CUUR0000SAS4), released Sept. 11, 2026.
Chart data (table)
CPI transportation services, % change from 12 months earlier
MonthTransportation services CPI
Sept. 20248.5%
Oct. 20248.2%
Nov. 20247.1%
Dec. 20247.3%
Jan. 20258.0%
Feb. 20256.0%
March 20253.1%
April 20252.5%
May 20252.8%
June 20253.4%
July 20253.5%
Aug. 20253.5%
Sept. 20252.5%
Oct. 2025n/a
Nov. 20251.7%
Dec. 20251.5%
Jan. 20261.3%
Feb. 20262.2%
March 20264.1%
April 20264.3%
May 20264.1%
June 20263.4%
July 20262.9%
Aug. 20262.4%

n/a: October 2025 CPI was not collected (federal shutdown).

Download CSV Data
  • Producer Price Index, final demand: +0.4% month over month and +5.4% year over year in August 2026 (BLS, released Sept. 10).
  • PPI core (excluding foods, energy, and trade services): +0.3% month over month and +4.7% year over year.
Line chart of Producer Price Index final demand and core, year over year, Sept. 2024 to Aug. 2026; final demand is 5.4% and core 4.7% in August 2026.
Producer prices are rising faster than consumer prices. PPI, % change from 12 months earlier (not seasonally adjusted), Sept. 2024 – Aug. 2026. Source: BLS PPI (WPUFD4, WPUFD49116), released Sept. 10, 2026.
Chart data (table)
PPI, % change from 12 months earlier (not seasonally adjusted)
MonthFinal demandCore (ex. foods, energy & trade services)
Sept. 20242.1%3.4%
Oct. 20242.8%3.6%
Nov. 20242.9%3.6%
Dec. 20243.5%3.6%
Jan. 20253.8%3.5%
Feb. 20253.4%3.6%
March 20253.2%3.5%
April 20252.4%2.7%
May 20252.7%2.7%
June 20252.4%2.6%
July 20253.2%2.9%
Aug. 20252.7%3.0%
Sept. 20253.0%3.0%
Oct. 20252.8%3.5%
Nov. 20253.1%3.6%
Dec. 20253.1%3.4%
Jan. 20263.1%3.5%
Feb. 20263.4%3.5%
March 20264.3%3.6%
April 20265.7%4.4%
May 20265.9%5.0%
June 20265.6%5.0%
July 20264.8%4.7%
Aug. 20265.4%4.7%

Recent months are preliminary.

Download CSV Data
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 in September 2026, down from 54.6 in August (ISM, released Oct. 1). That's the ninth straight month of expansion (above 50 = growth).
    • New orders: 55.3 (+1.6)
    • Employment: 52.7 (+1.5)
    • Prices: 77.9 (+6.8), close to March's 78.3
  • Industrial production, manufacturing: +1.0% year over year in August 2026 (Federal Reserve G.17; FRED updated Sept. 18).
Line chart of the Federal Reserve industrial production index for manufacturing, Sept. 2024 to Aug. 2026, ending at 99.1, about 1% above a year earlier.
Factory output is up 1% from a year ago. Industrial production: manufacturing, index 2017 = 100, Sept. 2024 – Aug. 2026. Source: Federal Reserve Board G.17 via FRED (IPMAN), August data posted Sept. 18, 2026.
Chart data (table)
Industrial production: manufacturing (index, 2017 = 100, seasonally adjusted)
MonthIndex
Sept. 202496.1
Oct. 202495.4
Nov. 202495.7
Dec. 202496.2
Jan. 202595.8
Feb. 202597.0
March 202597.4
April 202597.3
May 202597.2
June 202597.6
July 202598.1
Aug. 202598.1
Sept. 202598.0
Oct. 202597.2
Nov. 202597.1
Dec. 202597.0
Jan. 202697.1
Feb. 202697.7
March 202698.1
April 202698.9
May 202699.0
June 202699.2
July 202699.4
Aug. 202699.1
Download CSV Data
  • E-commerce share of retail: 17.1% in Q2 2026, up from 16.3% a year earlier (Census Bureau, released Aug. 18).
Bar chart of e-commerce as a share of U.S. retail sales by quarter, Q3 2024 to Q2 2026, reaching 17.1% in Q2 2026.
E-commerce reached 17.1% of retail sales. E-commerce share of U.S. retail sales, quarterly, Q3 2024 – Q2 2026. Source: U.S. Census Bureau via FRED (ECOMPCTSA), Q2 2026 released Aug. 18, 2026.
Chart data (table)
E-commerce share of U.S. retail sales (seasonally adjusted)
QuarterE-commerce share
Q3 202416.2%
Q4 202416.2%
Q1 202516.0%
Q2 202516.3%
Q3 202516.4%
Q4 202516.7%
Q1 202617.0%
Q2 202617.1%
Download CSV Data

What it means

Shippers & manufacturers
Producer prices are up 5.4% year over year (August) and the ISM prices index is 77.9 (September). Expect component and packaging quotes to rise before your selling prices do, and set 2027 cost assumptions now.
3PLs & warehouse operators
Core PPI is up 4.7%, so supply bills keep climbing. Check the pass-through terms in your contracts before peak volume arrives.
Transportation & fleets
Manufacturing output is up 1.0% year over year (August) and new orders are at 55.3, so industrial freight demand is growing, slowly.

Sources: BEA GDP, BLS CPI August 2026, BLS PPI August 2026, ISM Manufacturing PMI, September 2026, Federal Reserve G.17 via FRED, Census quarterly e-commerce

2. Credit & Rates

  • Fed funds target range: 3.75%–4.00%, after a 0.25-point increase at the Sept. 15–16 FOMC meeting (statement released Sept. 16). The next meeting is Oct. 27–28.
  • Effective fed funds rate: 3.88% on Oct. 1, compared with 4.09% a year ago.
  • 30-year fixed mortgage (Freddie Mac PMMS): 7.28% for the week of Oct. 1, up from 6.34% a year ago.
  • 10-year Treasury: 5.24% on Oct. 1, up from 4.12% a year ago.
Line chart of the effective fed funds rate, 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate, Oct. 2024 to Oct. 1, 2026; latest values 3.88%, 5.24% and 7.28%.
Long-term rates are climbing again. Effective fed funds, 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage, Oct. 2024 – Oct. 1, 2026. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of NY (EFFR), U.S. Treasury (DGS10), Freddie Mac PMMS (MORTGAGE30US), all via FRED.
Chart data (table)
Effective fed funds, 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage, percent (last reading of each month)
MonthEffective fed funds10-year Treasury30-year fixed mortgage
Oct. 20244.83%4.28%6.72%
Nov. 20244.58%4.18%6.81%
Dec. 20244.33%4.58%6.85%
Jan. 20254.33%4.58%6.95%
Feb. 20254.33%4.24%6.76%
March 20254.33%4.23%6.65%
April 20254.33%4.17%6.81%
May 20254.33%4.41%6.89%
June 20254.33%4.24%6.77%
July 20254.33%4.37%6.72%
Aug. 20254.33%4.23%6.56%
Sept. 20254.09%4.16%6.30%
Oct. 20253.86%4.11%6.17%
Nov. 20253.89%4.02%6.23%
Dec. 20253.64%4.18%6.15%
Jan. 20263.64%4.26%6.10%
Feb. 20263.64%3.97%5.98%
March 20263.64%4.30%6.38%
April 20263.64%4.40%6.30%
May 20263.62%4.45%6.53%
June 20263.63%4.44%6.49%
July 20263.63%4.75%6.66%
Aug. 20263.63%4.75%6.66%
Sept. 20263.88%5.29%7.03%
Oct. 2026 (Oct. 1)3.88%5.24%7.28%

Each cell is the last published value in that month; the download has every daily and weekly reading.

Download CSV Data
  • Bank prime loan rate: 7.00%, up from 6.75% before the September hike (7.25% a year ago).

What it means

Shippers & manufacturers
The 10-year Treasury is 5.24% (Oct. 1), up from 4.12% a year ago, so carrying peak inventory costs more. Tighter replenishment beats early, deep stock positions.
3PLs & warehouse operators
With the bank prime rate at 7.00%, automation and equipment projects need a shorter payback to clear the bar. Higher rates also slow new warehouse development, which supports rents.
Transportation & fleets
Financing tractors and trailers costs more at a 7.00% prime rate. Extending the life of current equipment is worth pricing against replacement.

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, Sept. 16, 2026, FOMC calendar, FRED: EFFR, MORTGAGE30US, DGS10, DPRIME

3. Labor

  • Transportation & warehousing employment: 6,608,700 in September (preliminary). That's +7,600 from August and about 9,800 below September 2025.
  • Warehousing & storage: 1,831,800, down 4,100 from August and 21,600 from a year ago.
Two line charts of employment, Oct. 2024 to Sept. 2026: transportation and warehousing at about 6.61 million and warehousing and storage at about 1.83 million in September 2026.
Warehouse headcount keeps slipping. Employment, seasonally adjusted, Oct. 2024 – Sept. 2026. Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES4300000001, CES4349300001), released Oct. 2, 2026.
Chart data (table)
All employees, seasonally adjusted, thousands
MonthTransportation & warehousingWarehousing & storage
Oct. 20246,650.21,873.1
Nov. 20246,659.61,877.6
Dec. 20246,663.21,881.2
Jan. 20256,664.91,881.2
Feb. 20256,689.11,883.4
March 20256,671.71,880.8
April 20256,655.41,881.3
May 20256,655.51,875.3
June 20256,655.51,871.9
July 20256,659.41,869.3
Aug. 20256,657.81,869.4
Sept. 20256,618.51,853.4
Oct. 20256,619.11,839.9
Nov. 20256,560.21,842.0
Dec. 20256,555.41,836.2
Jan. 20266,578.01,830.4
Feb. 20266,532.51,831.1
March 20266,557.61,832.5
April 20266,597.01,837.4
May 20266,597.81,841.7
June 20266,587.51,845.8
July 20266,597.81,838.5
Aug. 20266,601.11,835.9
Sept. 20266,608.71,831.8

Aug.–Sept. 2026 are preliminary.

Download CSV Data
Bar chart of monthly job changes in warehousing and storage, Oct. 2024 to Sept. 2026, with declines in July, August and September 2026 (minus 4,100 in September).
Warehousing has shed jobs three months running. Warehousing & storage, monthly change in employment, Oct. 2024 – Sept. 2026. Source: BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES4349300001), released Oct. 2, 2026.
Chart data (table)
Warehousing & storage: change in employment from prior month, thousands (seasonally adjusted)
MonthChange (thousands)
Oct. 2024+2.1
Nov. 2024+4.5
Dec. 2024+3.6
Jan. 2025+0.0
Feb. 2025+2.2
March 2025-2.6
April 2025+0.5
May 2025-6.0
June 2025-3.4
July 2025-2.6
Aug. 2025+0.1
Sept. 2025-16.0
Oct. 2025-13.5
Nov. 2025+2.1
Dec. 2025-5.8
Jan. 2026-5.8
Feb. 2026+0.7
March 2026+1.4
April 2026+4.9
May 2026+4.3
June 2026+4.1
July 2026-7.3
Aug. 2026-2.6
Sept. 2026-4.1

Aug.–Sept. 2026 are preliminary.

Download CSV Data
  • Average hourly earnings, transportation & warehousing: $32.78, up $0.08 from August and +3.1% year over year.
Line chart comparing year-over-year growth in transportation and warehousing average hourly earnings (3.1% in Sept. 2026) with CPI inflation (3.4% in Aug. 2026).
Warehouse-sector pay is now trailing inflation. Avg. hourly earnings vs. CPI, % change from 12 months earlier, Oct. 2024 – Sept. 2026. Source: BLS CES (CES4300000003), released Oct. 2, 2026; CPI via FRED (CPIAUCNS).
Chart data (table)
Average hourly earnings (transportation & warehousing) vs. CPI, % change from 12 months earlier
MonthAvg. hourly earningsCPI headline
Oct. 20243.4%2.6%
Nov. 20243.3%2.7%
Dec. 20242.6%2.9%
Jan. 20252.3%3.0%
Feb. 20252.2%2.8%
March 20252.5%2.4%
April 20252.9%2.3%
May 20252.7%2.4%
June 20252.6%2.7%
July 20252.8%2.7%
Aug. 20253.0%2.9%
Sept. 20253.3%3.0%
Oct. 20253.6%n/a
Nov. 20253.9%2.7%
Dec. 20253.8%2.7%
Jan. 20263.9%2.4%
Feb. 20264.0%2.4%
March 20263.7%3.3%
April 20263.3%3.8%
May 20263.4%4.2%
June 20263.5%3.5%
July 20263.4%3.4%
Aug. 20263.3%3.4%
Sept. 20263.1%n/a

n/a: September 2026 CPI is released Oct. 14, 2026, and October 2025 CPI was not collected (federal shutdown).

Download CSV Data
  • Job openings and quits (JOLTS, transportation, warehousing & utilities, not seasonally adjusted): 353,000 openings in August. The quits rate was 2.0%, compared with 2.2% a year earlier (BLS, released Sept. 29).
Two line charts for transportation, warehousing and utilities, Sept. 2024 to Aug. 2026: job openings at 353,000 and the quits rate at 2.0% in August 2026.
Quits are running a bit below last year. Job openings and quits rate, transportation, warehousing & utilities, Sept. 2024 – Aug. 2026. Source: BLS JOLTS via FRED (JTU480099JOL, JTU480099QUR), released Sept. 29, 2026.
Chart data (table)
Transportation, warehousing & utilities (JOLTS, not seasonally adjusted)
MonthJob openings (thousands)Quits rate
Sept. 20242891.9%
Oct. 20243352.4%
Nov. 20243072.6%
Dec. 20243472.3%
Jan. 20253292.2%
Feb. 20253122.0%
March 20252491.8%
April 20252621.8%
May 20253071.8%
June 20253062.7%
July 20253642.1%
Aug. 20253402.2%
Sept. 20253032.2%
Oct. 20254222.3%
Nov. 20252702.5%
Dec. 20252982.3%
Jan. 20263141.8%
Feb. 20262891.9%
March 20262772.3%
April 20263442.0%
May 20262862.5%
June 20263902.4%
July 20263262.0%
Aug. 20263532.0%
Download CSV Data
  • Overall payrolls (BLS): +29,000 with unemployment at 4.2%. Revisions cut July and August by a combined 60,000.
  • ADP, September: +90,000 private jobs, with trade/transportation/utilities flat (0). Base pay for job-stayers rose 3.0% year over year, versus 4.8% for job-changers. Trade/transportation/utilities base pay was up 3.4%.

What it means

Shippers & manufacturers
Warehousing and storage lost 21,600 jobs over the year (September, BLS). Ask your 3PL how it will staff peak and what its turnover was last season.
3PLs & warehouse operators
Job-changers got 4.8% raises versus 3.0% for stayers (ADP, September). Every trained operator who leaves during peak is replaced at a higher wage by someone still learning the work. Run the turnover cost before you set peak pay.

Sources: BLS Transportation & Warehousing, BLS Warehousing & Storage, BLS Employment Situation, Sept. 2026, BLS JOLTS via FRED, ADP National Employment Report

4. Industrial Real Estate (Q2 2026; Q3 reports due later this month)

  • U.S.: Vacancy is 6.9%, down 10 bps from the prior quarter. Average asking rent is $10.32/sq ft, up 2.9% year over year.

See Cushman & Wakefield's Q2 2026 U.S. industrial vacancy and rent chart

  • Dallas/Fort Worth: Vacancy is 8.1%, down 110 bps year over year. Asking rent hit a record $9.19/sq ft, up 13.2% year over year ($8.99 for warehouse/distribution).

See Cushman & Wakefield's Q2 2026 Dallas/Fort Worth vacancy and rent chart

  • Charlotte: Vacancy is 7.4%, the fifth straight quarterly decline. Overall asking rent is $8.67/sq ft ($7.76 for warehouse/distribution).

See Cushman & Wakefield's Q2 2026 Charlotte vacancy and rent chart

What it means

Shippers & manufacturers
U.S. vacancy is 6.9% and asking rent is $10.32/sq ft, up 2.9% (Q2 2026). If you were waiting for a softer lease market, that window is closing. Price flexible 3PL capacity alongside any new lease.
3PLs & warehouse operators
Dallas/Fort Worth asking rent is up 13.2% to a record $9.19/sq ft, and Charlotte vacancy has fallen five straight quarters to 7.4%. Space costs more at renewal, so output per square foot matters more.

Sources: Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Industrial MarketBeat, Dallas/Fort Worth, Charlotte

5. Freight

  • Logistics Managers' Index (August): 66.6, down 2.2 from July (above 50 = expansion).
    • Inventory levels: 52.8
    • Warehousing capacity: 53.5 (+7.2, back in expansion)
    • Warehousing prices: 75.0
    • Transportation prices: 90.0

See the LMI's warehousing prices chart in the August 2026 report

See the LMI's transportation prices chart in the August 2026 report

  • Cass Freight Index (August): Shipments +2.1% year over year, the first annual gain since January 2023. Expenditures +18.7% year over year.
Line chart of Cass Freight Index shipments and expenditures, year over year, Sept. 2024 to Aug. 2026; shipments are up 2.1% and expenditures up 18.7% in August 2026.
Freight spending is rising far faster than volume. Cass Freight Index, % change from 12 months earlier, Sept. 2024 – Aug. 2026. Source: Cass Information Systems via FRED (FRGSHPUSM649NCIS, FRGEXPUSM649NCIS), posted Sept. 11, 2026.
Chart data (table)
Cass Freight Index, % change from 12 months earlier
MonthShipmentsExpenditures
Sept. 2024-5.2%-6.6%
Oct. 2024-2.4%-5.9%
Nov. 2024-0.7%-3.8%
Dec. 2024-6.5%-3.4%
Jan. 2025-8.2%-4.2%
Feb. 2025-5.5%-4.6%
March 2025-5.3%-2.0%
April 2025-3.6%+1.2%
May 2025-4.0%+0.8%
June 2025-2.4%+2.6%
July 2025-6.9%+0.4%
Aug. 2025-9.3%-0.4%
Sept. 2025-5.4%+2.2%
Oct. 2025-7.8%-0.2%
Nov. 2025-7.6%-1.3%
Dec. 2025-7.5%-0.6%
Jan. 2026-7.1%+0.6%
Feb. 2026-7.2%+2.1%
March 2026-4.5%+4.2%
April 2026-4.4%+3.5%
May 2026-1.2%+7.5%
June 2026-4.1%+11.2%
July 2026-4.8%+9.1%
Aug. 2026+2.1%+18.7%
Download CSV Data
  • Diesel (EIA): $6.382/gal for the week of Sept. 28. That's down 14.7¢ on the week but up $2.63 (about 70%) from a year ago.
Line chart of the weekly U.S. on-highway diesel price, Oct. 2024 to Sept. 28, 2026, rising to $6.38 per gallon from $3.75 a year earlier.
Diesel is up 70% from a year ago. U.S. on-highway diesel, weekly, Oct. 2024 – week of Sept. 28, 2026. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration via FRED (GASDESW), released Sept. 29, 2026.
Chart data (table)
U.S. on-highway diesel, weekly retail average, $ per gallon (last weekly reading of each month)
Week ofDiesel ($/gal)
Oct. 28, 2024$3.573
Nov. 25, 2024$3.539
Dec. 30, 2024$3.503
Jan. 27, 2025$3.659
Feb. 24, 2025$3.697
March 31, 2025$3.592
April 28, 2025$3.514
May 26, 2025$3.487
June 30, 2025$3.727
July 28, 2025$3.805
Aug. 25, 2025$3.708
Sept. 29, 2025$3.754
Oct. 27, 2025$3.718
Nov. 24, 2025$3.831
Dec. 29, 2025$3.500
Jan. 26, 2026$3.624
Feb. 23, 2026$3.809
March 30, 2026$5.401
April 27, 2026$5.351
May 25, 2026$5.523
June 29, 2026$4.668
July 27, 2026$5.313
Aug. 31, 2026$5.599
Sept. 28, 2026$6.382

Year-ago comparison: $3.754 for the week of Sept. 29, 2025. The download has every weekly reading.

Download CSV Data
  • DAT dry van (linehaul, excluding fuel): Spot averaged $2.17/mile last week, +31.9% year over year. In August, contract averaged $2.41 against $2.19 spot.

See DAT's dry van spot rate chart (2026 vs. 2017–2025)

  • Truckload pricing: The BLS producer price index for long-distance truckload was up 13.9% year over year in August (released Sept. 10). The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index was up 11.3%.
Line chart comparing year-over-year change in diesel prices (up 46% in Aug. 2026) and long-distance truckload producer prices (up 13.9%).
Truckload prices are rising, but trail diesel. Diesel vs. truckload freight prices, % change from 12 months earlier, Sept. 2024 – Aug. 2026. Source: EIA via FRED (GASDESM); BLS PPI long-distance truckload via FRED (PCU484121484121), released Sept. 10, 2026.
Chart data (table)
% change from 12 months earlier
MonthDiesel (monthly average)Truckload freight prices (PPI)
Sept. 2024-22.0%-5.4%
Oct. 2024-20.5%-9.8%
Nov. 2024-17.2%-14.3%
Dec. 2024-12.0%-3.4%
Jan. 2025-5.7%+1.5%
Feb. 2025-9.1%+0.6%
March 2025-10.9%-4.0%
April 2025-10.9%+1.2%
May 2025-8.5%-1.7%
June 2025-3.3%-7.8%
July 2025-0.8%-4.8%
Aug. 2025+1.2%+3.2%
Sept. 2025+5.3%+8.1%
Oct. 2025+2.6%+11.4%
Nov. 2025+8.5%+17.9%
Dec. 2025+3.5%+5.5%
Jan. 2026-3.1%-0.2%
Feb. 2026+1.3%+2.2%
March 2026+37.3%+15.4%
April 2026+54.2%+14.8%
May 2026+60.0%+14.0%
June 2026+39.6%+18.0%
July 2026+31.1%+12.6%
Aug. 2026+45.9%+13.9%
Download CSV Data

What it means

Shippers & manufacturers
Cass expenditures are up 18.7% year over year on shipments up 2.1% (August). Build 2027 freight budgets on cost, not volume, and plan for fuel volatility rather than a one-time spike.
3PLs & warehouse operators
LMI warehousing prices hold at 75.0 while warehousing capacity loosened to 53.5 (August). Storage costs aren't falling yet, but customers will see the extra capacity coming.
Transportation & fleets
Diesel is $6.382/gal (week of Sept. 28), up about 70%, and DAT dry van spot is $2.17/mile, up 31.9%. Keep fuel surcharge tables current and plan for loaded miles.

Sources: LMI August 2026, Cass Transportation Index, August 2026, EIA Gasoline & Diesel Update, DAT Dry Van Report, DAT August rates, BLS PPI truckload via FRED

6. Parcel

Table of parcel pricing as of Oct. 4, 2026: FedEx 2027 increase of 5.9%, UPS and USPS 2027 rates not announced, ground fuel surcharges near 30%, and 2026 residential demand surcharges.
Fuel and peak fees stack up this season. Published parcel rate actions as of Oct. 4, 2026. Source: FedEx and UPS fuel surcharge pages; Supply Chain Dive (Sept. 21, Aug. 27, July 23, 2026); USPS (Mar. 25, Aug. 25, 2026).
Chart data (table)
Published parcel rate actions as of Oct. 4, 2026 (list rates; contracts vary)
Carrier2027 GRIGround fuel surcharge (week of Sept. 28)2026 residential demand surcharge
FedEx+5.9% avg., effective Jan. 4, 202729.75% (29.25% Oct. 5–11)$0.50–$0.80 per package, Oct. 26 – Jan. 17
UPSNot announced (as of Oct. 4)30.25%$0.50 / $0.75 / $0.50 per package, Oct. 25 – Jan. 16
USPSNot announced (as of Oct. 4)No fuel surcharge; 8% temporary increase Apr. 26 – Jan. 17Peak pricing Oct. 4 – Jan. 17; commercial Ground Advantage +$0.40 to +$7.70
Download CSV Data

2027 general rate increases

  • FedEx: Average +5.9%, effective Jan. 4, 2027, the fourth year in a row at that level. The residential delivery charge rises from $6.95 to $7.35.
  • UPS: No 2027 increase announced as of Oct. 4.
  • USPS: No January 2027 shipping price change announced as of Oct. 4.

Fuel surcharges (week of Sept. 28 to Oct. 4)

  • FedEx: Ground 29.75% (29.25% for Oct. 5 to 11). Express 33.00%.
  • UPS: Ground 30.25%. Domestic Air 33.50%.
  • USPS: No separate fuel surcharge. An 8% time-limited "transportation-related" increase on competitive parcels runs April 26, 2026 through Jan. 17, 2027.

2026 peak and demand surcharges

  • UPS: Ground Residential is $0.50 (Oct. 25 to Nov. 21), then $0.75 (Nov. 22 to Dec. 26), then $0.50 through Jan. 16. Additional Handling runs $8.75 to $11.90 starting Sept. 27.
  • FedEx: Ground/Home Delivery residential is $0.50 to $0.80 from Oct. 26 to Jan. 17. Additional Handling runs $8.80 to $11.85 starting Sept. 28.
  • USPS: Peak pricing runs Oct. 4 to Jan. 17. For commercial Ground Advantage, it adds $0.40 (Zones 1–4, 0–3 lb) up to $7.70 (Zones 5–9, 26–70 lb).

What it means

Shippers & manufacturers
Ground fuel surcharges are 30.25% (UPS) and 29.75% (FedEx) for the week of Sept. 28, before any peak fee. Package dimensions and zone mix now move parcel cost more than FedEx's 5.9% GRI.
3PLs & warehouse operators
Additional Handling runs $8.75 to $11.90 per package at UPS and $8.80 to $11.85 at FedEx this peak. Pack-out standards that avoid those triggers protect margin directly. Our peak readiness checklist covers where those costs hide.

Sources: Supply Chain Dive: FedEx 2027 rates, FedEx fuel surcharge, UPS fuel surcharge, Supply Chain Dive: UPS peak, Supply Chain Dive: FedEx peak, USPS peak pricing, USPS 8% increase

The Ecosystem Breakdown

One key indicator from each section, and which way it cuts for shippers, 3PLs and fleets this month.

Ecosystem breakdown · October 2026Where each indicator cuts: shippers, 3PLs and fleets
IndicatorLatest valueChangeShippers & manufacturers3PLs & warehousesTransportation & fleets
EconomyPPI, final demand+5.4% y/y (Aug. 2026, BLS)+0.4% m/m; core +4.7% y/yHeadwindInput and packaging costs rising upstreamHeadwindSupply costs climb; check pass-through clausesNeutralTruckload prices tracked separately above
Credit & Rates10-year Treasury5.24% (Oct. 1, 2026, FRED)From 4.12% a year agoHeadwindCostlier to carry peak inventoryHeadwindHigher bar for automation paybackHeadwindEquipment financing costs more
LaborWarehousing & storage employment1,831,800 (Sept. 2026, prelim., BLS)−21,600 y/y; −4,100 m/mHeadwindAsk how your 3PL staffs peakHeadwindJob-changers get 4.8% vs. 3.0% for stayersNeutralTransportation & warehousing jobs +7,600 m/m
Industrial Real EstateU.S. industrial vacancy6.9% (Q2 2026, Cushman & Wakefield)−10 bps q/q; rent $10.32/sq ft, +2.9% y/yHeadwindLease window narrowing; price flexible capacityNeutralFirmer rents at renewal; space must earn its keepNeutralNo direct effect
FreightU.S. on-highway diesel$6.382/gal (week of Sept. 28, 2026, EIA)+$2.63 y/y (about 70%)HeadwindFuel in every freight billHeadwindInbound and outbound freight costs upHeadwindFuel up about 70%; dry van spot +31.9%
ParcelUPS ground fuel surcharge30.25% (week of Sept. 28, 2026)FedEx 2027 GRI +5.9%; peak fees from Oct. 25–26HeadwindAbout 30% fuel plus peak fees per parcelNeutralPack-out standards decide surcharge exposureNeutralNo direct effect

Deep dive: peak-season labor retention

The warehouse labor market is shrinking, not tightening. Warehousing and storage employment was 1,831,800 in September (preliminary), down 21,600 from a year earlier. Transportation and warehousing pay rose 3.1% in September, against 3.4% CPI inflation in August. Real pay is flat to negative.

People are mostly staying put. The quits rate for transportation, warehousing and utilities was 2.0% in August, down from 2.2% a year earlier. But the ones who leave are paid well to do it: ADP puts raises for job-changers at 4.8%, against 3.0% for people who stay.

That gap matters most on the work that takes longest to learn. A multi-component kit, a retailer's routing guide, an ASN that has to match the carton it describes: these run on people who already know the build and the customer's rules. A replacement hired in November is still learning in December.

New-hire mistakes show up as retailer chargebacks and reships, and this year reships cost more. Ground fuel surcharges are 30.25% at UPS and 29.75% at FedEx (week of Sept. 28). Peak residential and Additional Handling fees, up to $11.90 per package at UPS, apply on top.

The same math applies inside manufacturing plants. With the PMI at 54.5 and new orders at 55.3, factories are adding output. Plants that lean on temp labor for kitting and packaging lines feel turnover as missed schedules, not just higher cost.

Whether the team runs in a 3PL building or inside the client's plant, the operations that keep the same leads and trained operators from September through January should have the steadier peak. Before peak, compare what retention pay costs with what a lost trained operator costs in rework, chargebacks and reships.

Operational directives

Optimize: staffing and throughput

  • Lock peak rosters now. Tie retention pay to finishing the season, and remember you are competing with the 4.8% raises job-changers are getting.
  • Put your most experienced operators on the most complex builds and use new hires on simpler pick-and-pack work, where errors are easier to catch.
  • Track output per labor hour weekly through January, not just headcount against plan.

Safeguard: retail compliance and chargebacks

  • Audit routing guide and ASN/EDI accuracy before peak volume, not after the first chargeback notice.
  • Freeze display and kit build specs early, and check the first unit of every new build against the spec before the line runs.
  • Pair new hires with a trained lead on labeling and compliance-critical stations.

Synchronize: production and regional fulfillment

  • With diesel at $6.382/gal and truckload producer prices up 13.9%, move finished goods to regional fulfillment in planned full loads rather than expedited partials.
  • Time production runs to fulfillment windows. At a 5.24% 10-year Treasury, finished goods sitting early are a cost, not a buffer.
  • Position inventory closer to demand: USPS peak pricing adds up to $7.70 per package (Zones 5–9, 26–70 lb).

What's next

September CPI comes out Oct. 14 and September PPI on Oct. 15. The Fed meets Oct. 27–28, and the Q3 GDP advance estimate is due Oct. 29. Our next issue arrives in early November.

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About this report and methodology

Labor & Logistics Indicators is published monthly by Productiv. It is built from official public data (BEA, BLS, the Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, EIA, FRED and the Census Bureau) and named industry sources (Cushman & Wakefield, the Logistics Managers' Index, DAT, Cass, ISM, UPS, FedEx and USPS). Every figure is linked to its source with its reference period and release date. It contains no proprietary Productiv data.

How figures are calculated: year-over-year and month-over-month changes are taken from the official series as published. Our charts plot about 24 months of published data without estimates or seasonal adjustments of our own. Third-party charts are linked, not reproduced.

The Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index is different: it is a Productiv calculation from public data, not a figure as published by a source (see the methodology). Each issue recomputes its full history. If a month we have already published moves by 1 point or more, we note it in a footnote in the new issue; past issues are not edited.

Revisions: when a source revises a figure, we update it on this page, change the “Updated” date and note what changed. Past issues keep their URLs.

Productiv, Inc. is headquartered in Midlothian, Virginia. It runs 3PL fulfillment in Dallas and Charlotte, and onsite kitting and co-packing teams inside client plants in Richmond, Charlotte, Raleigh, Dallas and Salt Lake City.

Cite as: Productiv, Labor & Logistics Indicators, October 2026, https://getproductiv.com/insights/labor-logistics-indicators/2026-10

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