// MONTHLY_REPORT
Labor & Logistics Indicators
A monthly read on the numbers that move warehouse labor and fulfillment cost: employment and wages, freight and diesel, parcel surcharges, interest rates and industrial real estate. Written for both sides of the market: manufacturers and shippers buying logistics, and the 3PLs, warehouses and carriers providing it. Published monthly by Productiv, Inc. from official public data and named industry sources.
Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index
August 2026 (final)
130.4
+3.7 pts m/m · +14.9 pts y/y
- Labor
- 106.8
- Freight
- 128.6
- Capital & Inputs
- 143.7
100 = 2015–2019 average; higher = more cost and labor pressure. Methodology
Latest issue · October 2026 · Data as of
PMI 54.5, Warehouse Jobs −21,600: Retention Is the Peak Risk
Factories are expanding and costs are climbing, but warehouse jobs are falling and pay trails 3.4% inflation. Retention, not hiring, is the peak-season labor risk.
At a glance
- Fuel: U.S. diesel averaged $6.382/gal for the week of Sept. 28, 2026, up $2.63 (about 70%) from a year earlier (EIA).
- Warehouse jobs: Warehousing and storage employment was 1,831,800 in September 2026 (preliminary), down 21,600 from a year earlier (BLS).
- Pay: Transportation and warehousing average hourly earnings were $32.78 in September 2026, up 3.1% year over year, behind August CPI inflation of 3.4% (BLS).
- Input prices: Producer prices for final demand rose 5.4% year over year in August 2026 (BLS), and the ISM manufacturing prices index was 77.9 in September (ISM).
- Parcel: Ground fuel surcharges were 30.25% at UPS and 29.75% at FedEx for the week of Sept. 28, 2026, before peak fees. FedEx's 2027 rate increase averages 5.9% (carrier notices).
Key figures
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diesel, U.S. on-highway average | $6.382/gal | Week of Sept. 28, 2026 | EIA |
| Warehousing & storage employment | 1,831,800 (−21,600 y/y) | Sept. 2026, preliminary | BLS |
| Avg. hourly earnings, transportation & warehousing | $32.78 (+3.1% y/y) | Sept. 2026 | BLS |
| CPI, headline | +3.4% y/y | Aug. 2026 | BLS |
| PPI, final demand | +5.4% y/y | Aug. 2026 | BLS |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | Sept. 2026 | ISM |
| Cass Freight Index, shipments | +2.1% y/y | Aug. 2026 | Cass |
| UPS ground fuel surcharge | 30.25% | Week of Sept. 28, 2026 | UPS |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.24% | Oct. 1, 2026 | Federal Reserve via FRED |
| Indicator | Latest value | Change | Shippers & manufacturers | 3PLs & warehouses | Transportation & fleets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EconomyPPI, final demand | +5.4% y/y (Aug. 2026, BLS) | +0.4% m/m; core +4.7% y/y | HeadwindInput and packaging costs rising upstream | HeadwindSupply costs climb; check pass-through clauses | NeutralTruckload prices tracked separately above |
| Credit & Rates10-year Treasury | 5.24% (Oct. 1, 2026, FRED) | From 4.12% a year ago | HeadwindCostlier to carry peak inventory | HeadwindHigher bar for automation payback | HeadwindEquipment financing costs more |
| LaborWarehousing & storage employment | 1,831,800 (Sept. 2026, prelim., BLS) | −21,600 y/y; −4,100 m/m | HeadwindAsk how your 3PL staffs peak | HeadwindJob-changers get 4.8% vs. 3.0% for stayers | NeutralTransportation & warehousing jobs +7,600 m/m |
| Industrial Real EstateU.S. industrial vacancy | 6.9% (Q2 2026, Cushman & Wakefield) | −10 bps q/q; rent $10.32/sq ft, +2.9% y/y | HeadwindLease window narrowing; price flexible capacity | NeutralFirmer rents at renewal; space must earn its keep | NeutralNo direct effect |
| FreightU.S. on-highway diesel | $6.382/gal (week of Sept. 28, 2026, EIA) | +$2.63 y/y (about 70%) | HeadwindFuel in every freight bill | HeadwindInbound and outbound freight costs up | HeadwindFuel up about 70%; dry van spot +31.9% |
| ParcelUPS ground fuel surcharge | 30.25% (week of Sept. 28, 2026) | FedEx 2027 GRI +5.9%; peak fees from Oct. 25–26 | HeadwindAbout 30% fuel plus peak fees per parcel | NeutralPack-out standards decide surcharge exposure | NeutralNo direct effect |
All issues
- PMI 54.5, Warehouse Jobs −21,600: Retention Is the Peak Risk
Diesel is up 70%, warehouse jobs are falling and pay trails inflation. Our October 2026 read on labor, freight, rates, real estate and parcel costs.
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