Labor & Logistics Indicators · December 2025 · Retrospective

December 2025 Report: Pressure Index 122.4 for October

Retrospective edition. Compiled from public data as currently revised, to extend the Pressure Index record back before the series launched in October 2026. It was not published in December 2025, and figures may differ from what was first released at the time. For current analysis, read the November 2026 issue.

The Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index

October 2025 (final)

122.4

+3.4 pts m/m · +14.7 pts y/y

Labor
118.5
Freight
114.0
Capital & Inputs
129.0

How to read it: 100 = the 2015–2019 average; every 10 points is one normal-year swing; higher = more cost and labor pressure.

Line chart of the Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index from November 2010 to October 2025 with its Labor, Freight and Capital & Inputs pillars against a baseline of 100. The composite is 122.4 in October 2025; Labor 118.5, Freight 114.0, Capital & Inputs 129.0.
Pressure Index: 122.4 in October 2025. Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index, monthly, Nov. 2010 – Oct. 2025 (100 = 2015–2019 average). Source: Productiv calculations from BLS (CES, JOLTS, PPI), EIA diesel and the Federal Reserve 10-year Treasury (DGS10), via FRED; final months only, as currently revised.
Chart data (table)
Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index and pillars, last 24 final months (100 = 2015–2019 average)
MonthIndexLaborFreightCapital & Inputs
Nov. 2023117.6141.288.2125.9
Dec. 2023110.4133.280.3121.6
Jan. 2024115.2137.089.2121.8
Feb. 2024112.0124.886.3126.0
March 2024108.5120.479.4127.6
April 2024114.1119.290.5131.7
May 2024113.8116.191.1132.7
June 2024117.2124.493.2132.7
July 2024120.0119.4106.5129.9
Aug. 2024111.9112.897.4123.8
Sept. 2024104.7105.986.2122.0
Oct. 2024107.7113.181.1129.5
Nov. 2024109.3120.376.3133.0
Dec. 2024114.4113.791.5135.6
Jan. 2025118.5114.599.3137.4
Feb. 2025116.7113.197.3135.9
March 2025109.1100.190.9133.1
April 2025110.398.897.6130.1
May 2025112.1105.194.6133.3
June 2025113.4119.988.2131.6
July 2025112.5106.992.6134.8
Aug. 2025115.5107.4103.2131.1
Sept. 2025119.0109.9110.5130.6
Oct. 2025122.4118.5114.0129.0

Full monthly history since Nov. 2010, with each component's raw value, transform and z-score, is in the CSV.

Download CSV Data

How the index is built: components, weights, baseline and revision policy

October 2025 at a glance

  • The Productiv Labor & Logistics Pressure Index read 122.4 in October 2025, +3.4 points from the prior month and +14.7 from a year earlier. Labor 118.5, Freight 114.0, Capital & Inputs 129.0.
  • Transportation and warehousing average hourly earnings were up 3.6% from a year earlier, CPI for October 2025 was not published (federal shutdown), so there is no inflation comparison (BLS).
  • Diesel averaged $3.68/gal, up 2.6% from a year earlier (EIA), and long-distance truckload producer prices were up 11.4% (BLS).
  • Producer prices for final demand were up 2.8% year over year (BLS), and the 10-year Treasury averaged 4.06% (Federal Reserve).

The index inputs

Pay and inflation (Labor), fuel and truckload prices (Freight), and producer prices and the 10-year Treasury (Capital & Inputs), through October 2025.

Line chart of transportation and warehousing average hourly earnings growth and CPI inflation, Nov. 2023 – Oct. 2025; in October 2025 pay was 3.6% and CPI n/a.
Pay vs. inflation. % change from 12 months earlier, Nov. 2023 – Oct. 2025. Source: BLS CES (CES4300000003) and CPI (CPIAUCNS), via FRED; as currently revised.
Chart data (table)
Average hourly earnings (transportation & warehousing) vs. CPI, % change from 12 months earlier
MonthAvg. hourly earningsCPI headline
Nov. 20235.7%3.1%
Dec. 20236.3%3.4%
Jan. 20246.8%3.1%
Feb. 20246.2%3.2%
March 20245.9%3.5%
April 20245.1%3.4%
May 20244.9%3.3%
June 20244.5%3.0%
July 20244.2%2.9%
Aug. 20244.2%2.5%
Sept. 20243.8%2.4%
Oct. 20243.4%2.6%
Nov. 20243.3%2.7%
Dec. 20242.6%2.9%
Jan. 20252.3%3.0%
Feb. 20252.2%2.8%
March 20252.5%2.4%
April 20252.9%2.3%
May 20252.7%2.4%
June 20252.6%2.7%
July 20252.8%2.7%
Aug. 20253.0%2.9%
Sept. 20253.3%3.0%
Oct. 20253.6%n/a

October 2025 CPI was not collected during the federal shutdown, so October 2025 and October 2026 have no CPI change.

Download CSV Data
Line chart of diesel prices and long-distance truckload producer prices, % change from a year earlier, Nov. 2023 – Oct. 2025; in October 2025 diesel averaged $3.68/gal (+2.6%) and truckload prices were +11.4%.
Diesel vs. truckload freight prices. % change from 12 months earlier, Nov. 2023 – Oct. 2025. Source: EIA on-highway diesel (GASDESW, monthly average) and BLS PPI long-distance truckload (PCU484121484121), via FRED; as currently revised.
Chart data (table)
Diesel (monthly average) and long-distance truckload PPI
MonthDiesel ($/gal)Diesel y/yTruckload PPI y/y
Nov. 2023$4.25-19.1%-4.5%
Dec. 2023$3.97-15.7%-11.5%
Jan. 2024$3.85-15.8%-4.4%
Feb. 2024$4.04-8.4%-8.3%
March 2024$4.02-4.5%-14.6%
April 2024$4.00-2.4%-6.2%
May 2024$3.82-2.4%-5.7%
June 2024$3.72-2.1%-4.1%
July 2024$3.81-1.9%+6.4%
Aug. 2024$3.70-15.3%+2.0%
Sept. 2024$3.56-22.0%-5.4%
Oct. 2024$3.59-20.4%-9.8%
Nov. 2024$3.52-17.2%-14.3%
Dec. 2024$3.49-12.0%-3.4%
Jan. 2025$3.63-5.7%+1.5%
Feb. 2025$3.67-9.1%+0.6%
March 2025$3.58-10.9%-4.0%
April 2025$3.57-10.9%+1.2%
May 2025$3.50-8.5%-1.7%
June 2025$3.60-3.3%-7.8%
July 2025$3.78-0.8%-4.8%
Aug. 2025$3.74+1.2%+3.2%
Sept. 2025$3.75+5.4%+8.1%
Oct. 2025$3.68+2.6%+11.4%
Download CSV Data
Line chart of producer prices for final demand, % change from a year earlier, Nov. 2023 – Oct. 2025; +2.8% in October 2025.
Producer prices, final demand. % change from 12 months earlier, seasonally adjusted, Nov. 2023 – Oct. 2025. Source: BLS PPI final demand (PPIFIS), via FRED; as currently revised.
Chart data (table)
PPI final demand, % change from 12 months earlier (seasonally adjusted)
MonthPPI final demand
Nov. 2023+0.8%
Dec. 2023+1.0%
Jan. 2024+1.0%
Feb. 2024+1.6%
March 2024+2.0%
April 2024+2.3%
May 2024+2.6%
June 2024+3.0%
July 2024+2.4%
Aug. 2024+2.1%
Sept. 2024+2.1%
Oct. 2024+2.8%
Nov. 2024+2.9%
Dec. 2024+3.4%
Jan. 2025+3.8%
Feb. 2025+3.4%
March 2025+3.2%
April 2025+2.4%
May 2025+2.7%
June 2025+2.4%
July 2025+3.2%
Aug. 2025+2.7%
Sept. 2025+3.0%
Oct. 2025+2.8%
Download CSV Data
Line chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, monthly average, Nov. 2023 – Oct. 2025; 4.06% in October 2025.
10-year Treasury yield. Percent, monthly average, Nov. 2023 – Oct. 2025. Source: U.S. Treasury 10-year constant-maturity yield (DGS10), monthly average, via FRED.
Chart data (table)
10-year Treasury yield, monthly average, percent
Month10-year Treasury
Nov. 20234.50%
Dec. 20234.02%
Jan. 20244.06%
Feb. 20244.21%
March 20244.21%
April 20244.54%
May 20244.48%
June 20244.31%
July 20244.25%
Aug. 20243.87%
Sept. 20243.72%
Oct. 20244.10%
Nov. 20244.36%
Dec. 20244.39%
Jan. 20254.63%
Feb. 20254.45%
March 20254.28%
April 20254.28%
May 20254.42%
June 20254.38%
July 20254.39%
Aug. 20254.26%
Sept. 20254.12%
Oct. 20254.06%
Download CSV Data

Sources: BLS (CES, CPI, PPI, JOLTS), EIA and the Federal Reserve, via FRED. Each chart has its data table and a CSV; the index CSV holds the full history with every component. How the index is built: methodology. All issues: Labor & Logistics Indicators.

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